Latest forecasts from the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) indicate a significant increase in apple production across key Southern Hemisphere countries, while pear yields are expected to decline.
The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released its 2025 forecast for apple and pear production in the Southern Hemisphere. The data, compiled from major producers including Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, projects a 5.5% increase in apple production, totaling approximately 4.75 million tons. Conversely, pear production is anticipated to decrease by 3.3%, amounting to around 1.45 million tons.
Apple Production Insights
- South Africa: Maintains its position as the leading apple producer in the Southern Hemisphere, with an expected output of 1.47 million tons, reflecting a 3.4% increase from 2024.
- Brazil: Anticipates a substantial 14.2% surge in apple production, reaching 950,000 tons.
- Chile: Projects a modest growth of 0.7%, resulting in 920,000 tons of apples.
- New Zealand: Foresees a 5.6% rise, totaling 544,949 tons.
- Argentina: Expects a 5.8% increase, producing 537,000 tons.
- Australia: Predicts a 5.5% growth, with an output of 319,923 tons.
The Gala variety remains the most cultivated, with production expected to grow by 6.8% year-on-year, totaling approximately 1.56 million tons. Exports are also projected to rise by 5.3%, reaching 1.65 million tons. South Africa and Chile, the two largest exporters, are set to increase their export volumes to 641,488 tons and 507,000 tons, respectively.
Pear Production Insights
- Argentina: As the largest pear producer in the Southern Hemisphere, Argentina anticipates a 10.9% decrease in production, totaling 616,000 tons.
- South Africa: Expects a 2.9% increase, producing 551,642 tons.
- Chile: Projects a 3% growth, resulting in 208,025 tons.
- Australia: Foresees a 4.2% rise, totaling 62,467 tons.
The Packham’s Triumph variety continues to dominate pear production, accounting for 601,322 tons, despite a 2.7% decrease compared to 2024. However, overall pear exports are expected to decline by 4.4%, amounting to 689,155 tons.
European Union Production Overview
In the European Union, forecasts for 2024 indicate a 9.7% decrease in apple production compared to 2023, totaling approximately 10.39 million tons. In contrast, pear production is expected to rise by 5.1%, reaching 1.79 million tons. As of January 1, 2025, European apple stocks stood at 3.69 million tons, a 4.3% reduction from the previous year, while pear stocks increased by 4.5%, totaling 608,544 tons.
The 2025 outlook for the Southern Hemisphere’s apple industry is optimistic, with anticipated production increases across all major producing countries. This growth is poised to meet rising global demand and strengthen export markets. Conversely, the pear sector faces challenges, particularly in Argentina, where significant production declines are expected. Producers and stakeholders should consider these trends in their strategic planning to navigate the evolving market dynamics effectively.
